Recap of Wildcard Weekend in the NFL

1. TEBOW!!!!! How can you not love this guy? It seems like every week just when we’re ready to count him out, Tebow does something amazing. This week it was something no one thought he could do – look like an elite NFL quarterback. My biggest question, however, is this – What was Pittsburgh thinking in overtime?! One of the qualities every championship level team has to have is the ability to adapt to what their opponent is doing. Now, I like Mike Tomlin and Dick Lebeau a lot, but they dropped the ball yesterday. From the start, Denver’s plan was obvious; spread-option run the ball, and use play-action to attack the defense down the field. The short-to-intermediate passing game (where Tebow really struggles because he’s about as accurate as a blind sniper) was nonexistent. Watch the last play of overtime here, and click pause at the 0:04 second mark. Notice how the defense has no one deeper than 5 yards off the ball. In a league where a corner can’t even look at a wide receiver without drawing a flag, how are you supposed to stop the skinny post without safety help? Now, you could claim that Pittsburgh had no way of knowing Denver would run the skinny post, but in order to claim that you would have to not been watching the game. Denver ran some version of that play a half-dozen times! If you freeze that clip again at the 0:08 mark when Thomas catches the ball, he’s already behind the entire defense, and he’s only 20 yards down-field.

Considering the new overtime rules (if a team kicks a field goal on the opening possession the opposing team is allotted one opportunity with the ball) you should always have safety help over the top to protect against a big play. On that possession the only thing that can end the game is a TD. Why risk giving up an 80 yard bomb? I understand that there was run-action on the play, but has Denver’s rushing attack become so unstoppable that you need all 11 guys within the line of scrimmage to stop it? Also, consider this – What happens if Denver does run the ball and McGahee breaks one tackle and gets to the nonexistent third level? We’ve heard of teams playing prevent defense at the end of games at getting burned, but this time we saw the opposite – a defensive scheme that was too aggressive and in the end, cost Pittsburgh the game.

2. At what point are people going to point out that Matt Ryan doesn’t win big games? Yesterday, the Atlanta Falcons were embarrassed for the 2^nd straight year in the playoffs. Last season, after finishing with the number 1 seed in the regular season, Atlanta lost at home to Green Bay (the eventual champs) 48-21. The Falcons decided to take that game to heart and improve their offense in the offseason (they traded multiple picks to move up in the draft and take Alabama stud Julio Jones). The Falcons had clearly decided that to take the next step they would need to develop their passing game to be able to score with the likes of Green Bay. Fast-forward a year to yesterday. That prolific offense that Atlanta supposedly created scored a grand total of zero offensive points against the Giants (a team who Vegas made only a 3-point favorite, which essentially means equal – you get 3 points for being the home team typically).

Now, after watching yesterday’s game, I think it’s pretty clear that the Giants were the better team, are definitely one of the top eight teams in the league, and deserve to make the next round, but like the Pittsburgh game, what was Atlanta thinking?! Four times yesterday, yes FOUR, Atlanta had a 3^rd or 4^th and one or less on the cusp of the redzone. The plays in those situations were as follows – Michael Turner run (stuffed) full back run (stuffed), quarterback sneak (stuffed), quarterback sneak (stuffed). Rewind to what we earlier talked about – the lesson Atlanta took from the Green Bay playoff game last year was to win now you have to be able to score points. Does anyone here think that Green Bay put up 48 points running those plays? The ONLY part of the Giants’ defense that is elite (or really, even above average) is that defensive line. Why in the  Hell would the Falcons think in a critical moment, they would be able to push Osi, Tuck, JPP and others off the line? Then, to make it worse, why would they think they could do it the fourth opportunity after getting stuffed the first three? HELLO, MIKE SMITH?? YOU THERE?? Do you have dinner plans next weekend that you just can’t cancel? Why not ONCE try throwing to Julio Jones (you remember, that guy you traded 15 draft picks, your kidney, and your collector’s set of MASH DVD’s to draft). I’m not sure if Mike Smith or Matty Checkdown (hey, Matt, you know what happens when you throw 2 yard outs to Roddy White on 1^st, 2^nd, and 3^rd down? You punt) are going to get any heat for this loss because in Atlanta it seems Mike Vick set the bar so low electrocuting dogs that no one else can do wrong, but there needs to be some serious one-on-one time with a mirror for both of them.

3. I’m really excited for the Saints to lose. For me, they have gone from the lovable team that represented an unnecessarily beaten city to the 2007 New England Patriots, trying to score as many points as possible. On Saturday night, already leading by two scores with under 5 minutes to play, they Saints were still throwing the ball, trying their best to score one last “eff-you” touchdown. My question is who exactly are they saying “eff-you” to? The public, in general,  loves the Saints. At least in 2007 the Patriots were trying to prove to everyone that they didn’t need to cheat to win (spy gate had just happened). It isn’t like the Saints can’t run the ball. Pierre Thomas was breaking more tackles then Lindsey Lohan running out of a club when the police show up and Darren Sproles has been a monster all year round. I have to admit, there was a tiny part of me that wanted to see Ndamukong (you better believe I had to look that up) Suh sprain Brees’ shoulder there so I could yell “Hey, assholes, that why you don’t do that,” but alas, it didn’t happen. At some point Brees, who does throw his share of picks, is going to throw a pick-6 that flips a game. I’ll be right here smirking.

And that brings me to Drew Brees. I’ll admit, I used to be all in on him, but the Brees love has gone way too far. Yes, he broke Dan Marino’s passing record, but considering Rodgers, Manning, Stafford, and Brady were all within 500 yards of the record and it doesn’t seem as big a deal. The “Brees is MVP” stuff is absurd. While he did throw the most yards consider the following factors (I will compare him to Rodgers, Brady, and Manning who I think were all just as, if not more, deserving; FIRST. Brees played 11 games indoors this year, which is more than the other three combined – Rodgers (3), Eli (3), Brady (0). Indoors means 72 degrees and zero wind. I’ll go ahead and let you think about how often those are the conditions in Green Bay, Massachusetts, and New Jersey in November and December. SECOND. Brees threw for 46 TDs and 14 picks, Brady threw for 39 TDs and 12 picks, and Rodgers threw for 45 TDs and 6 (yeah seriously, 6) picks (and sat out the last game. Feels like he might have thrown a TD or two against that Lions secondary, right?) How many of Brees’ TDs (and yards) were from piling on versus crappy opponents? New Orleans won games this year by 28, 29, 22, 25, and 55 points (damn, Colts). It’s not out of the question to say that Brees picked up maybe 6-8 unnecessary touchdowns and probably 600-1000 garbage yards. In those situations Green Bay, New York, and even New England are trying to run the ball and get outta’ town. THIRD. Rodgers had zero games all year with multiple picks, Brees had 5 games with multiple picks (and 2 of those games he probably cost them a chance to win).

Look, I’m not saying Brees isn’t great, he obviously is. What I’m saying is Rodgers is the MVP, Brees did not have any better of a season than Brady, and Eli isn’t that far behind. **Also, here’s a personal message to Drew, I love how much charity work you do. Seems like you are a great guy and keep it up, but we don’t need to know every time you throw 50 cents into the Salvation Army bucket via your Twitter account. Calm down Drew.

4. I don’t have very many thoughts about the Bengals v. Texans game. It all basically played out how we thought it would. The two young QBs made some plays and made some mistakes, In the end, the Texans ran the ball really well and played lockdown defense, which is basically what they did all year.

My one thought is this – I’m not sure the Texans can’t win next week at Baltimore too. The Texans have two elite facets to their team (run-game and defense) and have a quarterback that is at least competent. Is that not the same way you feel about the Ravens? Honestly, I might take the Texans defense and run game over Baltimore’s. Is Joe Flacco really any better than T.J. Yates? If I’m a Raven’s fan, I’m at least nervous for this week.

What We Learned From Last Night

As everyone saw last night, the 49ers dismantled the Steelers in a 20-3 victory. Really, the score wasn’t even that close. Here are some of the things I think last nights game taught NFL fans.

– San Francisco is a legit title contender. Honestly, until yesterday I really wasn’t sold on the 49ers. I was under the belief that they had a good defense and had played an average schedule. The three best wins prior to yesterday came against a banged-up wishy/washy Giants team, a vastly overrated Eagles team, and a Ravens squad that really struggles on the road (yeah I don’t know where my brain went there. Ravens beat San Fran). Last night, the 49ers played a complete game against a (mostly) complete team. Look, I get that Rothesburger is hurt and his limitations greatly effected the offense, but what impressed me most was San Fran’s ability to move the ball against Pittsburgh’s own stingy defense. Frank Gore was able to run all over their front 7, and the secondary really made no plays all game long. (Did Troy Polamalu retire? Where’s he been the 2nd half of the year?) While the fact remains that the 49ers offense is going to give them trouble, San Francisco probably the best defense and special teams in football. Dominating 2 out of 3 phases can win you a title.

– Ben Rothesburger shouldn’t have been on the field last night. We all commend Big Ben for playing through injuries (by the way, high-ankle sprains are usually a 3-6 week injury) but at a certain point Mike Tomlin needs to make a decision that’s best for team, both now and down the road.  What’s the point of putting your fanchise quarterback out there against that pass rush when he literally cannot move. If the arguement is Tomlin thought Rothesburger gave the Steelers the best chance to win, then fine, but 20 minutes into the game a change should have been made. It was obvious Ben was really hurt. To make it worse, Rothesburger’s two dominating qualties – the ability to throw the ball down field and the ability to extend plays with his legs – were both completely negated by the high-ankle sprain. Ben sailed throws over open reciever’s heads all night, including twice on interceptions. Charlie Batch is by no means a good quarterback, but at a certian pont Pittsburgh needed to cut its loses.

 – If I were a 49ers fan, I’d be very concerned about the redzone offense. Even on a night where they dominated the opposition to the point that San Fran could really do whatever it wanted, they stalled multiple times inside the 20. ESPN flashed a statistic that the 49ers scored touchdowns on only about 35% of their redzone opportunities, placing them 31st in football. Against teams like Green Bay, New Orleans, or even Dallas, you have to get 7 when the opportunity presents itself. Who is going to step up and be the go to guy (Hey, Vernon Davis, can you hear me???)

 – California is so broke it can’t even pay its own electric bills.

 

– The NFC has the 3 best teams in football. Yes, yes, I’m painfully aware that Green Bay lost this weekend. They’re still 13-1 and have won 19 of their last 20 games. Let’s all try to be a little less reactionary. (Any by the way, Aaron Rodgers is the MVP, not Brees. Settle down, everyone.) After Green Bay, I’d take the Saints and 49ers over any teams in the AFC. Who would even be the top team in the AFC to compete? Please don’t try to sell me New England. Yes, their offense is impressive and those two tight ends are amazing. The question was never their offense. In Indianapolis for the Super Bowl, how many points would that swiss cheese defense give up on the field turf to Green Bay or the Saints? After watching the 49ers defense last night, I feel like this it would like watching Brady run from Alden and Justin Smith. You could try to sell me the Ravens, but they’re way to inconsistant. Honestly, I’d still take Pittsburgh over every AFC team, but Rothesburger needs to get healthy (I mean, he REALLY shouldn’t have played last night). According to sportsbook.com, the NFC is favored by 4.5 to win the Super Bowl, and that seems about right.

 – Alex Smith has become very comfortable managing games. I have to be honest, I was pretty impressed with some of the things Smith was able to do last night. For the most part, he threw the ball where he wanted to and kept the ball out of the other team’s hands. Obviously, with a defense as dominating as San Francisco’s, Smith’s priority is to keep the turnovers down. Last night, he made every right decision, didn’t really force any balls, and let his running game and defense do the work. Bonus thought – every time I watch Frank Gore play (admittedly not that often) I am reminded of how good he is. If Gore can stay healthy – big if – and is Smith stays away from the turnovers – medium size if- this team can beat anyone in football. The defense is that good.

Week 15 Top 10

It was another week filled with madness in the NFL. Here are the things that stood out to me.

1. Six weeks ago, I thought the NFC West was worse than the SEC. Now, it might be the best division in the NFC. Can the Cards or Hawks seriously make it to the playoffs? No one else in the NFC seems to want that 6th seed. (Note to all teams playing Arizona. Devin Hester rules are now in effect. If you punt to Patrick Peterson bad things are going to happen.)

2. San Francisco HAS to win tomorrow night against the Steelers. The Saints look like there is no way they’re going to lose another home game in 2011-2012. Luckily for Niner fans, James Harrison has less self control than Lindsey Lohan at a frat party. If they 49ers have any hope in getting past Saints in the Divisional Round, it has to be outdoors. (Yes, I am assuming they both get there. The Saints, 49ers and Packers are a step above everyone else in the NFC – no Jerry Jones, I don’t care that your Cowboys neutered the Bucks on National TV. There’s a club for people who’ve done that to the Bucks called “Every Team That’s Played Them Since September Club”.

3. People are going to over-react to the Green Bay loss, but Arrowhead is a tough place to play. Let’s also not forget that the Chiefs fired Todd Haley this week, and there was a lot of noise that he was HATED in the locker room. Now Green Bay can rest its injured guys and prepare for the playoffs (they really need to get healthy on the offensive line to have any chance at repeating as Super Bowl champs).

4. People may say otherwise, but I think the Giants are the most consistent team in football. They compete with the elite teams, beat good and average teams, and lose trap games. Those things are sure as black-jack.

5. I’m okay with the Lions making the playoffs. They’re one of the top 6 teams in the NFC and should be there. I don’t, however, know if they’ll be able to keep their under control enough to make a playoff run, especially if this happens again.

6. Tebowwwww……oh wait. This is what’s going to happen if the Broncos play teams that can score. Detroit did what they wanted against the Broncos a few weeks back, and now New England has. Seems like a one-and-done playoff team to me.

7. Question for Jets fans – Should Rex Ryan’s seat feel a little warm? It really looks like this team is underachieving. Sanchez seems to get most of the blame, but how about the loud-mouth coach who is responsible for winning these games? Every year Rex comes out and guarantees they’re going to win the Super Bowl. Now, I’m not saying Jets fans are all geniuses, but I do believe they’re going to notice that you’re 0-3 on that guarantee, Rex. (I really am excited for him to get fired and hired by another team so we can have another season of “Hard Knocks” next year.)

8. Every Sunday at about 7:25 Central Standard Time I’m reminded that Faith Hill looks damn good for 44.

9. I feel like the Ravens or Chargers are always on national TV. I know almost as many of these players as I do players for my team. At least Flacco and Rivers are fun to watch. They both have a “good quarterback capable of winning or blowing a game” feel about them. FYI, I’m picking Baltimore to win 24-20.

10. To every New England fan who is celebrating their blowout win over the Broncos today, I would like to remind you of this – You made Tebow look like a good quarterback for most of that game. That secondary is going to be the death of you. I can already see Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown streaking down the sidelines.

Thanks for reading this week’s recap. See you again next week!

1st and Goal – Thoughts From Around the NFL

Here are 4 things I’ve been thinking about this week (and feel free to click the links, they add to the story).

1st – Has there ever been a more important battle for home field than the one between New Orleans and San Fransisco? Typically, Vegas gives the home team a 3-point advantage when calculating lines, but in this matchup, I’d argue that home field is worth more like 10 points.

Think about it, if San Fransisco gets the 2 seed and home field in the second round, where would you put the line? Probably something like 49ers by 4 1/2. Anything under that and you’re definitely taking San Fran’s defense out doors in January, you basically have to. I can picture Drew Brees under throwing a shivering University of Miami grad Jimmy Graham and Darren Sproles epeatedly getting blasted in the backfield by Patrick Willis already.

Now let’s pretend the Niners lose this week to Pittsburgh, the Saints win out to get the 2nd seed, and that game is played inside in New Orleans. Where would you put that line? I’d probably flip it to New Orleans by 4 and 1/2, and honestly that even seems a little low. All the problems for the Saints of playing outdoors would be eliminated, and in this scenario its pretty easy to picture New Orleans putting up 30 points, even against that 49er defense. Can San Fran get to 30 without some sort of weird special teams play? I don’t really think so.

2nd – The Cowboys line blocking was so offensive (get it?) that it thrust Jason Pierre Paul (who will now be referred to as JPP) into the Defensive Player of the Year conversation. JPP didn’t just beat the Cowboys o-line, he destroyed them in a way that only Julius Peppers usually can. Click here to see a Yahoo! link of JPP’s 2011 stats.

Who is JPP’s primary contention; you have Revis Island (4 picks, 1 TD, shutting people down like AT&T cell-reception), Jared Allen (quietly in serious contention to break the sack record, hunts buffalo with a bow and arrow in spare time) Charles Woodson (one pick-6 away from the all-time record) DeMarcus Ware (don’t see how he could get it over Allen), and even Von Miller (more valuable to the Broncos than Tebow). I think in that group I go Allen, but it’s damn close. If JPP keeps his play at the level its been the last few weeks, and the Giants make the playoffs, he’s going to (and should) get a serious look at DPOY.

3rd – If Tim Tebow shot-puts all over the Patriots on Sunday, we can go ahead and start blaming Bill Belichick for not doing a better job drafting on defense. We all know the story, the Pats have a boatload of picks every draft, and then trade back to pick up more. At one point I was convinced they were trying to have every pick in the 2043 draft.

Last year, however, they actually used a bunch of those picks, but only one of the first 7 was on defense (CB Ras-I Dowling, 2 games, 3 tackles, 0 picks, injured reserve). Think New England could use a pass rusher, corner, or safety right about now? Is anyone ever going to question the moves that Bill Belichick makes? Without question, this is a championship level offense that is going to get held back by a defense that has more holes than Charlie Sheen’s memory bank.

4th – The two most dangerous teams in the NFL (other than the elite teams) reside in New Jersey. If I’m Green Bay, I want no part of the Giants. Eli Manning now sits at the big boy table at the Manning family Christmas, and seems to have epic TD drives every Sunday. If Osi gets healthy for the playoffs, that three headed Tuck/JPP/Osi d-line is horrifing, especially to the pass-happy offenses in Green Bay and New Orleans. The G-men can score with almost anyone and rush the passer probably better than anyone.

If I’m New England or Baltimore I want nothing to do with the Jets (I don’t necessarily think Pittsburgh is a good matchup for them, unless of course James Harrison loses his mind and does this to a QB between now and then). That defense is playing well, and Shonn Greene has looked really good the last few weeks. If, wait I should capitalize/bold that for effect, IF Mark Sanchez can make a few plays and keep the turnovers down, a third straight AFC ship could be on the way (where they get spanked by the Steelers. In case you’re duller than Lindsey Lohan, I really like the Steelers).

Those are my thoughts, feel free to debate, and thanks for reading!