Here are 4 things I’ve been thinking about this week (and feel free to click the links, they add to the story).
1st – Has there ever been a more important battle for home field than the one between New Orleans and San Fransisco? Typically, Vegas gives the home team a 3-point advantage when calculating lines, but in this matchup, I’d argue that home field is worth more like 10 points.
Think about it, if San Fransisco gets the 2 seed and home field in the second round, where would you put the line? Probably something like 49ers by 4 1/2. Anything under that and you’re definitely taking San Fran’s defense out doors in January, you basically have to. I can picture Drew Brees under throwing a shivering University of Miami grad Jimmy Graham and Darren Sproles epeatedly getting blasted in the backfield by Patrick Willis already.
Now let’s pretend the Niners lose this week to Pittsburgh, the Saints win out to get the 2nd seed, and that game is played inside in New Orleans. Where would you put that line? I’d probably flip it to New Orleans by 4 and 1/2, and honestly that even seems a little low. All the problems for the Saints of playing outdoors would be eliminated, and in this scenario its pretty easy to picture New Orleans putting up 30 points, even against that 49er defense. Can San Fran get to 30 without some sort of weird special teams play? I don’t really think so.
2nd – The Cowboys line blocking was so offensive (get it?) that it thrust Jason Pierre Paul (who will now be referred to as JPP) into the Defensive Player of the Year conversation. JPP didn’t just beat the Cowboys o-line, he destroyed them in a way that only Julius Peppers usually can. Click here to see a Yahoo! link of JPP’s 2011 stats.
Who is JPP’s primary contention; you have Revis Island (4 picks, 1 TD, shutting people down like AT&T cell-reception), Jared Allen (quietly in serious contention to break the sack record, hunts buffalo with a bow and arrow in spare time) Charles Woodson (one pick-6 away from the all-time record) DeMarcus Ware (don’t see how he could get it over Allen), and even Von Miller (more valuable to the Broncos than Tebow). I think in that group I go Allen, but it’s damn close. If JPP keeps his play at the level its been the last few weeks, and the Giants make the playoffs, he’s going to (and should) get a serious look at DPOY.
3rd – If Tim Tebow shot-puts all over the Patriots on Sunday, we can go ahead and start blaming Bill Belichick for not doing a better job drafting on defense. We all know the story, the Pats have a boatload of picks every draft, and then trade back to pick up more. At one point I was convinced they were trying to have every pick in the 2043 draft.
Last year, however, they actually used a bunch of those picks, but only one of the first 7 was on defense (CB Ras-I Dowling, 2 games, 3 tackles, 0 picks, injured reserve). Think New England could use a pass rusher, corner, or safety right about now? Is anyone ever going to question the moves that Bill Belichick makes? Without question, this is a championship level offense that is going to get held back by a defense that has more holes than Charlie Sheen’s memory bank.
4th – The two most dangerous teams in the NFL (other than the elite teams) reside in New Jersey. If I’m Green Bay, I want no part of the Giants. Eli Manning now sits at the big boy table at the Manning family Christmas, and seems to have epic TD drives every Sunday. If Osi gets healthy for the playoffs, that three headed Tuck/JPP/Osi d-line is horrifing, especially to the pass-happy offenses in Green Bay and New Orleans. The G-men can score with almost anyone and rush the passer probably better than anyone.
If I’m New England or Baltimore I want nothing to do with the Jets (I don’t necessarily think Pittsburgh is a good matchup for them, unless of course James Harrison loses his mind and does this to a QB between now and then). That defense is playing well, and Shonn Greene has looked really good the last few weeks. If, wait I should capitalize/bold that for effect, IF Mark Sanchez can make a few plays and keep the turnovers down, a third straight AFC ship could be on the way (where they get spanked by the Steelers. In case you’re duller than Lindsey Lohan, I really like the Steelers).
Those are my thoughts, feel free to debate, and thanks for reading!
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