I literally can’t wait for the start of the NBA season, and Santa’s bringing us 5 awesome games on Christmas Day. In preperation I’ve been thinking about who’s going to win the MVP in this strange, shortened season. In reverse order:
12. Deron Williams – After coming over from the Jazz, Williams averaged almost 13 assists a game for the Nets. While his scoring was down, I expect that to come up now that he’ll have training camp (well, sort of) to go through. If somehow the Nets land Dwight Howard, Williams might average 15 assists a game.
11. Steve Nash – One of the few stars who doesn’t seem to have a desire to order his way around, you have to love Nash. Even though he’s getting on the older side (37 years old) I think this season is built for him. He’s in phenominal shape, and the Suns are used to running up and down the court. Team’s are going to be sucking wind against the Suns whenever they’re the 2nd game of a back-to-back.
10. Rajon Rondo – Here’s the thing, Rondo can the trade rumors two ways; 1. he acts like T.O. when talking about quarterbacks, or 2. he says, “eff-off Danny Ainge, I’m gonna show you how good I am.” If he goes with the latter, he might have a huge year. A running theme of this breakdown is young fresh legs helps, and Rondo is the only guy on Boston that qualifies. There will be nights where Rondo has to do it by himself, and I think he can.
9. Kobe Bryant – I know he’s not young and I know his legs aren’t fresh, but he’s still Kobe F. Bryant. The Odom trade and the fossilization of Derek Fisher means Kobe is going to be asked to do more than last year. He’s still one of the top 5 scorers in the league, and a better than average defender. The only thing that hurts Kobe’s chances are there will be nights he doesn’t play because he’s “under the weather”. That’s just what we’re going to face in a 66 games in 120 day season.
8. Blake Griffin – Ironically, I feel like the Chris Paul trade probably hurts Griffin’s numbers, and therefore MVP chances (more on that later). Griffin is young, but are the legs fresh enough to make it through an entire season? This is the same guy who hurt his knee two years ago dunking on air. The biggest advantage Blake has over the rest of the league is he’ll have 1 or 2 “holy crap did you just see that” plays a night that’ll be run over-and-over on Sportscenter. People tend to remember stuff like this.
7. Dwight Howard – I have to be honest, I wasn’t sure where to put Dwight. He’s the most dominating defensive presence in the leauge, and can be dominant on offense as well when his teammates are keeping him involved. The problem is, how is pending free agency/trade situation going to affect him. TANGENT – Why do we have to have the words affect and effect in the English language? I had to go find an English major right now just to explain to me the difference. Isn’t the point of language to communicate, not befuddle? I vote we pick one and go with it.
6. Carmelo Anthony – A full year in D’Antoni’s system is going to be fun times for Knicks fans. Melo and Amare will probably both put up huge numbers, but Amare concerns me in the condensed season. If he plays 37 minutes a game like he did last year, Amare might not be walking on his 30th birthday. Melo is much better condititioned for this, and could average 30 points a game this year.
5. Dirk Nowitski – The reigning Finals MVP should have all the confidence in the world heading into the 2011-2012 season (is it even called that now? there’s like 3 games being played in 2011.) The Mavs added Lamar Odom who should take some defensive pressure off Dirk. Dirks also crazy durable, playing in 76 games or more 11 of the last 12 years (73 games last year).
4. Derrick Rose – Once you get to this level, a case can be made for any of the guys. Rose won the award last year, and typically writers don’t give back-to-back awards if they can avoide it. The thing I love about Rose (that LeBron avoided his first 7 years, and Bill Simmons has ripped him for) is that he comes back with a new part of his game every year. Last year, it was the 3-ball. If Rose can turn himself into an above average defender, he just might be the best player in the league.
3. Chris Paul – How many lobs is Paul going to throw this year? 100? 200? 300?!?!?! I’m getting excited just thinking about. Paul really might average 15+ assists a game on that team. They have have athletic freaks in the front-court and 3-point shooters on the wing (Bledsoe, Caron Butler). Would 18 points, 15 assits and 2.5 steals win Paul the MVP? –It better.
2. Kevin Durant – I went back and forth between Durant at 1 or 2. The thing that I couldn’t get over is his size/defensive ability. He still needs to get bigger to prevent himself from being pushed around by stronger small forwards. I don’t think you should win the MVP if you’re not consistantly bringing it on both ends of the floor (I’m not saying Durant isn’t giving effort, just that he’s not that good defensively). His offensive numbers would have to be out of this world to take home the trophy – which is completely possible given his talent for scoring the ball. All that being said, I think KD finishes 2nd.
1. LeBron James – Let me start by saying this; I hated the Decision as much as anyone. LeBron’s ego had grown to unbearable levels. His lack of self-awearness was almost mindboggling. I was annoyed that the best player on the planet copped out and went to play with the 3rd or 4th best player on the planet. Here’s the thing though, that sentence still rings true. LeBron is still the best player on the planet. He passes like a point guard, can get to the rim from the 3 point line better than anyone in the league, and is a decent shooter (still needs work). If it’s true that LeBron made progress in his post game this summer by working with Hakeem, watch out. LeBron with a post game might average 10 assists a game due previously-stated passing ability. Take all that, and add it to the fact that James was one of the 5 best defensive players from last year, and there’s no denying what he is. He’s the best player in the league (even if he defers to Wade in the last 2 minutes).
Note – I really, and I mean REALLLYYYY wanted to find a place to put Russell Westbrook and John Wall on this list, but couldn’t.
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